Trump and the World

The unthinkable is only unthinkable until it happens. Like the attack on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, President Elect Donald Trump winning the 2016 US elections now seems historically inevitable. All over the world leaders are asking themselves what Trump’s policies will mean for them. No one can say for sure but Trumps speeches during his campaign have given a lot of insight on what is to come.

The largest impact of Trump on the world will likely be his policies on climate change. During his campaign, Trump denied the science of climate change and called it a “con job” and a “myth”.  In 2015 Trump announced his plans to void the Paris Accords, which seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He plans to permit mining of shale gas and oil, which defeats the target of reducing greenhouse gases. This will slowly but surely increase global warming worldwide. The world could lose its last chance to act unitedly to save our planet.

Further, Trump’s policies could have big economic impacts. Trump has accused China of “Dumping” and of “Devaluing” their currency, the Yuan. He has threatened to bring trade cases against China to the US courts and to the World Trade organisation. If implemented, Mr. Trump will get into a trade war with China causing its economy to slow down. China has the second largest economy in the world. Any country trading with China will be affected, causing those countries’ economies to slow down as well.

Furthermore, Trump is threatening to cut back trade with China, so as to make sure that North Korean Dictator Kim Jong-un does not lead North Korea any longer. North Korea has nuclear missiles. If North Korea is put in a corner, then it can unleash these missiles on Japan and South Korea. The result of this could be war.

President Elect Trump’s Defence policies could also cause an economic slowdown. During the elections, Trump announced his plan for an increased budget for defence, but also promised to reduce taxes. If taxes are reduced, the government will then need to borrow money to pay for an increased budget for Defence. This means less money for investments in the economy, which will slow down trade and investment worldwide.

In addition, Trump plans to void the nuclear agreement with Iran. Iran is the biggest producer of oil globally. Before the nuclear agreement, other countries ere banned from importing oil from Iran. Sanctions were lifted off imports of oil from Iran after the nuclear agreement was finalised. If the nuclear agreement becomes void, then the sanctions on export of oil by Iran will return, causing oil to become extremely expensive worldwide. This will cause a huge economic issue.

Trump also plans on stopping Muslim immigration because he believes that the Islamic states are the biggest “sponsors of terrorism”. This could lead to a Muslim versus non-Muslim divide worldwide. That might make terrorism worse, not better.

Trump also wants NATO to pay for protection against Russia. This has European officials worried as Russia ha become extremely strong after defeating Ukraine. Instability with Europe being so powerful is hazardous.

Global diplomacy has been likened to a game of chess‑and Trump is threatening to toss all the pieces off the board. No one knows if Trump is going to deliver on these threats but there are plenty of reasons to be very nervous.